Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Commerzbank Hamburg, said there was finally good news again. The eurozone's services sector is gradually gaining a foothold, with activity stabilizing in February and showing signs of modest growth in March. In particular, growth in new business resumed after an eight-month dry period. This favourable trend is expected to continue as wages grow faster than inflation, thereby increasing the purchasing power of households. As a result, individuals are more inclined to eat out, travel, and spend money on other services. However, a full-fledged boom has yet to emerge. Despite the temporary economic weakness, service providers have not stopped hiring more employees. Job growth has been markedly strong over the past two months, indicating a high level of optimism within the sector. In fact, business expectations have soared again, rising to their highest level in more than two years and above the long-term average.

The PMI data showed that the eurozone manufacturing sector ended 2023 at a disadvantage, with manufacturing activity contracting for the 18th consecutive month in December, showing no signs of an imminent strong rebound in the eurozone economy. The final value of the manufacturing PMI rose to 44.4 in December from 44.2 in November, but it was still below the 50 threshold between prosperity and decline. The index measuring output fell to 44.4 from 44.6 in November. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief analyst at Commerzbank Hamburg, said, "PMIs barely improved compared to November amid the continued sluggish manufacturing sector in the eurozone." This paints a bleak picture for the eurozone, which entered a recession in the third quarter of last year. ”

Cyrus, chief economist at Commerzbank Hamburg, said: "The situation is getting worse in the eurozone. The manufacturing sector has been in the doldrums for 16 consecutive months, and the service sector has been in the doldrums for three consecutive months. In addition, with a few exceptions, all sub-indices also continued to decline. Overall, this heralds another lackluster quarter. We would not be surprised if there is a slight recession in the eurozone in the second half of the year, followed by two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The composite PMI fell to 46.5, with the decline in the index mainly driven by activity in the services sector, which fell more sharply than in the previous month. The continued decline in new and unfinished business is a red flag that the industry will face more trouble in the future. And manufacturing companies are not only continuing to lay off workers, but are also accelerating their plans. That being said, this reduction is modest, and given the structural shortage of labor, we don't expect unemployment to surge that much in the near future.

Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist of Hamburg Commerzbank, commented on the final value of the Eurozone service industry PMI in September: Labor demand in the service industry is still hot. In fact, euro zone companies are expanding their teams faster than in August. This is a striking phenomenon given the slump in new business. One guess is that as the economy becomes less stable, people are starting to put off looking for work. The latest PMI supports the view of hawks as the European Central Bank debates its next interest rate decision. The input price index, which is heavily influenced by wages and energy prices, rose to a four-month high. However, doves will point out that service price increases were the lowest since the summer of 2021. Still, prices are climbing at a fairly rapid pace, a strange turn of events in the midst of an economic downturn.

September 22nd, PMI data showed that the euro zone economy may shrink in the third quarter and will not resume growth in the short term, although the decline in business activity in the euro zone eased slightly in September. The preliminary Eurozone Composite PMI in September was recorded at 47.1, rising from a 33-month low of 46.7. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commerzbank, said that the Eurozone services PMI data paints a grim picture, and the Eurozone economy is expected to shrink by 0.4% this quarter. The main drag factor still comes from the manufacturing industry, and the order situation has further deteriorated.