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Is the price level of 30 USD for XRP really feasible in this rising cycle?
XRP has risen more than 550% since November, reaching over $3 on Tuesday. The bullish surge of this cryptocurrency has led technical analyst Gert van Lagen to predict a broader upward trend towards $34 in this bullish cycle.
XRP's Double Bottom Suggests a 10x Bullish Increase According to Van Lagen, XRP has broken out of a seven-year double bottom pattern after rising above the neckline near $1.80. The cryptocurrency then returned to the neckline, acting as support. On the chart, such a retest often signals that a strong breakout is imminent and traders are confident in the price's ability to rise higher.
Using the Fibonacci extension level of 2.00 from the model, the measured volatility forecast of Van Lagen indicates a target of $34 by mid-2026. This setup reflects the price movements of XRP during the period of 2014–2017, when a multi-year base transformed into a parabolic bullish phase, pushing the XRP/USD price up by over 100,000%. The XRP market has experienced such strong fluctuations in recent years. For example, the price of XRP has risen by 1,072% since the lowest point in 2022. Previously, during the period of 2020-2021, the price of XRP surged over 1,625%.
The bullish rise of XRP in 2020–21 largely stemmed from the near-zero interest rate environment in the United States. The rise in 2022–25 was primarily driven by progress in the Ripple lawsuit, increasing legal clarity, relisting on exchanges, and optimism from ETF funds. The trend in the future continues to lead bullish speculators for XRP in 2025 with a 95% chance of ETF approval, and forecasts indicate that this token could rise to the sky at $27 if given the green light, close to Van Lagen's target. XRP Ledger Index Risks Overvaluation According to DefiLlama, the growth rate of the parent chain XRP, XRP Ledger (XRPL), is much slower than that of other major layer 1 platforms, including Ethereum. The market capitalization of XRP at 190 billion dollars is about 2,200 times larger than the total value locked (TVL) at 85 million dollars. This figure is in stark contrast to the ratio of about 5.6 for Ethereum, even though XRP's valuation is only nearly 40% of Ethereum.
Such a discrepancy has led to concerns about the overvaluation of XRP compared to on-chain activity. As of August, more than 95% of the XRP supply was profitable, a threshold that has consistently preceded major price corrections during the bullish phases of 2020–21 and 2022–25, as shown in the Glassnode chart below.
When a large number of people hold such profits, profit-taking activity often accelerates, creating selling pressure. This move could challenge the ability to maintain the current bullish trend of XRP to the level of 30 dollars. $XRP {spot}(XRPUSDT)