The mysterious trader scores big on the prediction platform, accurately predicting the election results

A mysterious trader known as "Trump Whale" is expected to profit nearly $50 million through a series of bold bets related to the U.S. presidential election. The trader, who calls himself "Théo", not only bets that Trump will win the presidential election, but also believes he will win the popular vote, a result that many political observers consider unlikely.

Théo placed bets using four anonymous accounts on a certain cryptocurrency prediction platform. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has been in contact with the media since mid-October when they reported on his bets. In multiple communications, Théo stated that his bets are essentially a challenge to the accuracy of polling data. He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks and has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polls since this summer.

Théo believes that the polls have exaggerated Vice President Harris's support rate. Unlike many armchair political commentators, he takes action and has bet more than $30 million on Trump's victory. On election night, as the results gradually emerged, Théo appeared very excited. He stated that he woke up at midnight in France to check the election results and felt very satisfied and confident about the betting outcome.

In the days leading up to the election, Théo predicted that Trump would receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating Harris. He also predicted that Trump would win six out of seven battleground states. As of Wednesday afternoon after the election, analysts predicted that Trump would win the popular vote, garnering nearly 72 million votes, while Harris would receive 67.1 million votes, although there were still millions of ballots left to be counted in some states.

Théo stated that he used his own funds to bet on Trump with the aim of making a profit, emphasizing that "there is absolutely no political purpose". He has repeatedly criticized American opinion polls, especially those conducted by mainstream media, believing that these polls often lean towards the Democratic Party and produce anomalous results favorable to Harris.

To support his point, Théo shared data analysis based on the average values of polls from a certain political website, showing that Trump performed well in the 2020 swing state polls. Considering that the poll results in the swing states for 2024 are close, he inferred that if Trump could perform similarly, he would easily take the lead.

Théo believes that polls fail to accurately reflect the "shy Trump voter effect." He explained that Trump supporters may be reluctant to express their views to pollsters or may simply refuse to participate in surveys. To address this issue, Théo suggests using the "neighbor polling method," which involves asking respondents which candidate they think their neighbors would support. He believes this method can indirectly reflect people's true inclinations.

Théo cited several polls using neighbor voting methods and traditional methods, showing that when asked about neighbor voting tendencies, Harris's support rate was a few percentage points lower than when directly asking about individual support rates. He believes this confirms that polling agencies have once again underestimated Trump's support.

On election night, while celebrating his victory, Théo revealed that he had commissioned a major polling firm to conduct a survey to gauge the neighbor effect, but he refused to disclose specific details. He believes that if American polling firms adopt the neighbor method in the future, they will be able to avoid significant errors again and make public opinion predictions more accurate.