Trump predicts a major breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine situation, as the U.S. envoy reveals core progress: Putin agrees for the first time to a NATO-style protective shield, and Pence urges simultaneous escalation of sanctions.

After U.S. President Trump previewed "significant progress" in the Russia-Ukraine situation with a brief tweet on Truth Social, White House envoy Steve Vitkov immediately gave an exclusive interview to CNN, revealing key insider information: Russian President Putin has agreed for the first time to U.S. and European collective defense protection for Ukraine akin to NATO's Article 5. This breakthrough means that Ukraine will receive substantial security guarantees without formally joining NATO. Ukrainian President Zelensky quickly responded, calling it a "historic decision," and the European Union also expressed support. Meanwhile, former Vice President Pence urged Trump to simultaneously implement strict sanctions while advancing peace talks, warning Putin that "only strength is recognized."

Presidential Preview and Envoy Reveal

Last Sunday, U.S. President Trump posted a brief tweet on the Truth Social platform from the White House: "Significant progress on the Russia issue. Stay tuned! President Donald J. Trump!" After six hours with no follow-up disclosures, White House envoy Steve Witkoff appeared on CNN to reveal the substantive content of the "progress" mentioned by Trump.

Core Breakthrough: NATO-like Fifth Clause Protection Gets Nod from Russia

According to CNN, Russian President Putin has agreed to collective defense protection for Ukraine that is "Article 5-like" from the U.S. and European allies. Vitkov stated clearly, "We have won the following key concession: the U.S. can provide Article 5-like protection, which is one of Ukraine's core demands for joining NATO." He emphasized that this is the first time the U.S. has learned of Russia's agreement to such terms. If this agreement is finalized, it would mark a significant compromise on Moscow's part, meaning that the U.S. and Europe would not need to wait for Ukraine to formally join NATO in order to provide defense guarantees equivalent to "an attack on one is considered an attack on all."

The EU responds positively, Zelensky details his demands

Last Sunday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded through the Associated Press, welcoming the security guarantees and committing that the EU will fulfill its responsibilities. Ukrainian President Zelensky quickly spoke out on platform X, calling it a "historic decision by the US to participate in Ukraine's security guarantees." He further requested that the relevant guarantees be practical, covering comprehensive defense across land, sea, and air, and that Europe be fully involved. This development follows the high-risk meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska. Afterward, the Trump administration's goal has shifted from merely promoting a ceasefire to seeking a broader peace agreement, marking a significant strategic change.

Pence Pressures: Sanction Hammer Must Be Wielded Alongside Peace Talks

Former Vice President Mike Pence appeared on CNN's "State of the Union" program last Sunday, warning that Trump must not show weakness towards Russia any longer. He stated that the president must immediately use secondary sanctions to "bring the hammer down on Putin." Pence commented on Trump's usual "velvet glove" diplomacy but emphasized that "the hammer must fall, and it cannot wait," advocating for high-pressure sanctions that would severely impact the Russian economy while supporting Ukraine.

Time Window and Historical Warnings

Pence warned: "The worst-case scenario is that Putin uses the negotiation delay as an excuse to prolong the war until winter arrives and the fighting season in Eastern Europe ends." He pointed out that if sanctions are not prepared early, Putin will turn time into a weapon, "The sanction plan must be ready on the president's desk for signing when negotiations begin; this is the core means to ensure substantial progress towards peace." "Putin's goal is clear—rebuilding the Soviet sphere of influence; he only recognizes power," Pence asserted, "Unless strongly deterred, Russia will not stop." Despite his critical stance, Pence still affirmed Trump's efforts to continue negotiations in Ukraine, mentioning his mediation results in Africa, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and stated, "There has been no shortage of voices within and outside the government calling for abandoning Ukraine months ago."

Conclusion

The principled consensus reached between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine's security guarantees may become a key turning point in the restructuring of the geopolitical landscape. However, the strong warning from former Vice President Pence highlights significant divisions within the United States regarding its strategy towards Russia. Cryptocurrency market investors need to closely monitor subsequent developments: if a "NATO-like protective shield" is implemented, it will significantly reduce the risk of regional conflicts and benefit risk assets; on the other hand, an escalation of sanctions and setbacks in negotiations may increase the demand for safe-haven assets. Whether Putin is genuinely willing to make concessions and how Trump balances negotiations with pressure will become the next geopolitical barometer affecting global financial markets (including crypto assets).