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Is Solana merely thriving on the surface? When the Token only rises due to behind-the-scenes manipulation, the on-chain cycle may have reached its end.
When manipulation became the only driver of price increases, the Solana ecosystem was at the end of the cycle. This article explores the phenomenon of manipulation on the Solana chain, arguing that it masks the true health of the market, and predicts that this insider-led model will eventually collapse. This article is derived from an article written by miya and is compiled, compiled and written by TechFlow. (Synopsis: Solana founder sprays meme coin NFT "all digital garbage", community war: but revenue accounts for 62%) (Background added: Can Solana's success trajectory be replicated?) Market Watch 4 Potential Altcoins If you've traded on Solana in the last few months, what have you observed? Here are my observations. At one time, tokens such as "N*iggabutt" skyrocketed from $1 million to $8 million due to a leak of a photo of Mike Tyson's hip. Today, the market is gradually turning to a more rational logic and is beginning to see "bundled bullish" as the only way to drive prices up. The wave of speculation in the crypto market is undergoing an interesting transformation. Y22 is a high-frequency on-chain trader mainly active on the Solana chain The current market phenomenon shows that there are only two types of tokens that can achieve value growth: one is "manipulation tokens", including bundled tokens, FNF tokens (note: "Friends and Family tokens", friends and family tokens, which were distributed to friends, family or people in the network of project founders at preferential prices in the early days), and tokens that were manipulated by deep internal exchanges; The other category is "yield tokens" such as HYPE and ENA. This phenomenon reveals a harsh reality: either "manipulative" dominance of the market or a return to the traditional capitalist system of valuation. When "manipulation" becomes an important indicator of whether the price of a token has risen, we can conclude that the current on-chain cycle has come to an end. On the surface, the "health" of the on-chain ecology seems to be better than it really is, but in fact, some participants are using "manipulative behavior" as a tool to artificially drive the price of some tokens by manipulating the market. Solana on-chain ecological health analysis This phenomenon is not new, but a repetition of history. A classic example is the Sumitomo Copper Affair from 1985 to 1996. In this case, single trader Yasuo Hamanaka weaponized manipulation by illegally building multibillion-dollar bulls in an attempt to maintain the apparent prosperity of the market, even as the actual market health continues to deteriorate. Capitalism is more like a voting machine in the short term, relying on emotions and speculation to drive the market; But in the long run, it's a scale that will eventually let the truth surface. The current "Crime Gap" on the Solana chain describes the true health of the market masked by opaque manipulation, improper behavior, or manipulation. It is a curtain that obscures the truth. When you take a closer look at the internal trading community, the project's intention to control more than 70% of the liquidity supply, and the traders' use of "manipulation" as a means of competitive advantage, you can see the shadows hidden behind the curtain. However, this mode of manipulation will eventually collapse. Like the Sumitomo copper incident, copper prices quickly fell back to previous lows as Sumitomo's positions were liquidated in mid-1996. Solana's "manipulation gap" will collapse in a similar way, and the true health of the market will eventually become apparent. History has proven time and time again that the truth of capitalism cannot be hidden forever. My view of Solana's "manipulation gap" is that ostensibly active and prosperous is actually a game of tied tokens and artificial liquidity manipulation dominated by insiders. Here, instead of being hidden, manipulation becomes a competitive advantage. However, as in the case of Yasuo Hamanaka's manipulation of the Sumitomo copper market, this gap will inevitably collapse. So, how will it disintegrate? Solana is a self-extracting casino: it can only survive if there is a slow, steady inflow of liquidity. At the moment $PUMP decided not to do a mass airdrop, the music stopped. All you hear now is the echo of something that once made the whole city boil. The "manipulation gap" will eventually collapse, and when it does, it will be cruel. Why? Because we are already at the end of this cycle. If the deteriorating overall economic environment is combined with the vulnerability of the artificially supported chain economy, one result emerges: a massive withdrawal of capital. The fluidity of the manipulated molecules in Memecoin has only one goal: to leave. There is no future cash flow, no utility, and no trust. Only insiders take turns trying to grab value before the lights go out. That's why Memecoin is so dangerous in the current cycle. When it is widely accepted that the asset is fundamentally worthless, the only consensus left is to sell. This means that insiders' only goal becomes clear: to scam as much as possible before the curtain ends. When the manipulation gap comes to an end, what will prevail? The answer is capitalism. It would be naïve to think that cryptocurrencies will always have the attributes of a large casino and that Memecoin will always be the most positive (+EV) bet just because of a bad experience with utility coins. As traders, we have come to believe in any currency that brings the most profit. Memecoin inherently creates a great environment for maximizing returns (especially at the end of the cycle) because you can "manipulate" without violating SEC rules and without liability. I think this is just a state of nature late in the cycle, not a new normal that prevails forever. We will see the pendulum swing back to utility tokens again. The online capital market is not a bad concept, but I firmly believe that it is deployed on the wrong blockchain. While we can break the feedback loop where utility tokens lack market sought-after, we can't break the feedback loop driven by human addictive behavior. As for Solana's culture, I think it somehow self-destructed. This is more my opinion than observation. Disclaimer: I'm not saying that the trader's responsibility is to do short "manipulation". Absolutely not! If you really want to take action, it should be to go long on it. Traders should believe that manipulation by others to drive up the price of a token is a net gain from holding the asset. In this market (especially on-chain) transactions, it is very dangerous to be in the ivory tower of moral superiority. You may end up being marginalized because you feel you have a higher moral obligation not to participate in the scam. The real Kuromaru is that not only this industry, but the whole world is full of fraud. I've seen a lot of traders develop this moral complex after learning the truth about market makers, exchanges, anonymous traders, and insider feeds. I myself have been plagued by the same illusion for months. Don't be the one yelling at the system, embrace it, embrace the Jewish trick, embrace the worst, embrace Israel, embrace Trump's manipulative behavior, embrace Epstein's...