Solana(SOL) Price Prediction: Breakthrough of $200 but Hidden Risks, Bull vs Bear Battle Intensifies

Solana (SOL) has steadily risen from a low of $127 in June and has currently broken through the $200 mark. Although new projects like USELESS are boosting ecosystem activity, analysts warn that the recent breakout above $190 could be a textbook "false breakout," with bearish pressure building up. The technical indicators show that SOL is still within an upward channel, and a failure to break through suggests insufficient upward momentum, with the most likely path being a peak followed by a pullback to the maximum pain point of $162(MPL). The contradiction lies in SOL's open interest(OI), which has reached a historical high of $10.96 billion, indicating a divergence between volume and price that suggests there may still be some strength in the short term. Investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks.

SOL steadily rises above 200 USD as new ecological stars boost the upward trend In the past few weeks, the price of Solana has shown a slow rise, increasing from a low of 127 dollars in June and successfully standing above the psychological level of 200 dollars at the time of writing this report. This round of rise is partly attributed to the emergence of new projects on the blockchain, such as USELESS, injecting market vitality into SOL. However, the sustainability of this rebound raises market concerns, with significant pullback risks in a bearish scenario.

Technical Analysis Alerts: False Breakouts and Bearish Scenarios Despite the overall bullish sentiment in the market, a cryptocurrency analyst has warned about the increasing bearish pressure on Solana. Their analysis indicates that the recent rise that pushed SOL above $190 is, in fact, a textbook "false breakouts" (fakeout).

The rise has caused the Solana price to break through the key resistance area of 170 dollars, paving the way to challenge 200 dollars, and has completed a liquidity sweep at the highs. However, this altcoin currently faces technical obstacles that may trigger a pullback. Analysts explain that despite the rebound, the price of Solana is still operating within a rising channel. This means that the breakout attempt was not successful at that time. Such failures usually indicate that the price lacks sufficient support, making it susceptible to bearish pressure.

In response to this situation, analysts have proposed two possible bearish scenarios:

1. Directly descending to the maximum pain point ( MPL ): Located around $162.30, this is the key downside target. However, given that the price has already broken through $190, this scenario has a low probability.

   

2. Pullback after a surge (most likely path): The price pulls back after testing the previous high and then falls, or forms a second high before starting a steep decline. Regardless of the path, the ultimate target is directed towards the MPL level.

Open interest reaches an all-time high, laying the groundwork for a long-short battle The surge in SOL prices has quickly increased market attention, with its open interest (OI) reaching a historic high. Open interest refers to the total sum of all open long and short positions for a particular asset. According to Coinglass data, Solana's open interest has currently surpassed $10.96 billion, exceeding the previous peak of $8.79 billion.

It is intriguing that the current price of Solana is significantly lower than the price at which the last all-time high OI was recorded. This may suggest that there is still some upward momentum in the market before the SOL price slows down again.

Key Data and Long/Short Focus

• **Current Price: ** >200 USD ( Written at )
• Key Resistance: Recent high ( false breakouts area )
• Bearish target (MPL): 162.30 USD
• Open Contracts ( OI ): 10.96 billion USD ( historical high )
• Technical Contradiction: False breakouts within the channel vs OI volume-price divergence
• Ecosystem Driven: The popularity of new projects like USELESS

Conclusion: Solana's breakout above $200 demonstrates short-term strength, but the false breakout signals and the rising channel constraints cast a shadow on the upward trend. Analysts warn that the risk of a pullback to the critical pain point of $162 is high. However, the record high in open contracts reveals a heated battle between bulls and bears, and the divergence in volume and price suggests that the market may still have residual upward momentum. Investors face a dilemma: chasing long positions requires caution against technical pullbacks, while shorting could encounter the risk of a squeeze due to high open interest. It is recommended to closely monitor two key signals: whether the price can effectively stabilize above the upper channel line at 1) and alleviate false breakout concerns; the direction of open interest data changes at 2) (continuously increasing or peaking and falling back). Short-term operations should be cautious, with strict stop-loss settings below key support.