Daily News | BTC ETF Outflows for Three Consecutive Days, Fed May Cut Interest Rates by 50 Basis Points in September

Crypto Daily Digest: ETH ETF trading is sluggish, BTC ETF outflows for three consecutive days

According to Farside Investor data, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $72 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of net outflows. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT outflow was about $14 million, which was the second outflow day in the 160 trading days since IBIT launched the ETFs.

Yesterday, there was a net outflow of $1.7 million from the US spot Ethereum ETFs, including a net outflow of $5.3 million from Grayscale ETHE and a net inflow of $3.6 million from Grayscale BTC.

Cboe submits revised application for listing of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF options

According to official documents, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe Exchange) submitted a revised application to regulators on August 28th, hoping to list Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF options. The proposed rule change will classify spot crypto ETFs as “securities deemed suitable for option trading” along with commodity based ETFs such as Goldman Sachs’ physical gold ETF and iShare Silver Trust.

Grayscale ETHE has sold 31% of ETH so far

Renowned analyst Trader T posted data analysis on social media, stating that the amount of ETH managed by Grayscale ETHE decreased by 31% in 28 trading days, with a net outflow of $5.35 million from ETHE yesterday. It is expected that 50% of ETHE will flow out within 108 days (November 20th), but the market is currently not active and trading volume is extremely low.

Analysis: Rainbow chart and five indicators including relative strength index indicate that Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak

According to Lookonchain’s article on X, five indicators can be used to observe whether Bitcoin has reached the top:

Rainbow chart is a long-term valuation tool that uses logarithmic growth curves to predict the potential price direction of BTC in the future. The new Bitcoin Rainbow2023 chart shows that BTC is still very cheap;

Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart ≥ 70: BTC is overbought and may soon decline 30: BTC is oversold and may soon rise. The current RSI is 61.87, and compared to previous data, BTC seems to have not yet reached its peak;

The 200 week moving average heatmap shows the current price point in blue, indicating that the top of the price has not yet been reached and it is an opportunity to hold and buy;

Accumulated days of burning of currency value (CVDD), when BTC price hits the green line, BTC price is undervalued, indicating a good buying opportunity at present. The current CVDD shows that the top of BTC seems to have not yet been reached;

The annual moving average multiplier shows that the price of BTC is located between the red and green lines. The red line has not been reached yet, and the market has not yet peaked.

Market Trends: The market is weak and volatile, suitable for long-term investors to invest in

Mainstream Coins

BTC’s recent trend has been volatile. Yesterday, the BTC price briefly rose to $61,000, but then fell back to around $59,000, indicating the weak volatility of the market. In addition, BTC ETFs have experienced fund outflows for three consecutive days, reflecting investors’ cautious sentiment.

The price of Ethereum is still fluctuating around $2,500. Although the ETH ETF was highly anticipated before its launch, the actual trading volume fell far short of expectations, and there has recently been a net outflow of $5 million. This indicates that the market remains cautious about the short-term prospects of ETH.

The Altcoin market is generally declining and currently belongs to a period of market boredom, with no new narratives or hot topics emerging, resulting in a lack of direction in the market.

Today, the AHR999 index is 0.65, indicating that the current price is still suitable for BTC long termists to invest in. The low level of this indicator is usually considered a good opportunity for long-term purchases.

The current Fear & Greed Index is 34, indicating that market sentiment remains in a state of “fear”. Investors are cautious about future trends, and market sentiment is relatively pessimistic.

Market Hotspots:

Ton Eco: Despite the bail of Telegram founder Durov, TON’s price performance is still relatively weak, and the future market is not optimistic. It is worth noting that Hamster Kombat, the largest “click-to-earn” game on the Ton chain, announced that it will issue tokens on September 26th, which may bring some attention to the eco, but the overall impact is limited.

Polifi sector: In the Polifi sector, tokens such as MAGA and POEPLE have performed well and become one of the few highlights in the market. The US government is expected to hold a crypto hearing in September, and there will also be a televised debate between Trump and Harris on September 10th. These political events may bring the related political concept of Meme coin to market attention and betting in advance.

Macroeconomics: The trend of the US stock market is fluctuating, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September

The three major indexes of the US stock market have fluctuated, with the S&P 500 index falling 0.00% to 5,591.96 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.59% to 41,335.05 points; The Nasdaq index fell 0.23% to 17,516.43 points. In addition, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is 3.87%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, is 3.87%.

Among the popular US stocks, Apple rose 1.46%, Microsoft rose 0.61%, Nvidia fell 6.39%, Google C fell 0.67%, Google A fell 0.66%, Amazon rose 0.77%, Meta rose 0.28%, TSMC rose 0.08%, Tesla rose 0.26%, and AMD fell 0.59%.

Gurpreet Garewal, macro strategist for fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs, stated in a report that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row in September, November, and December. But she said that if the August employment report to be released next week shows more signs of a weak job market, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by more than 50 basis points.

Conclusion

Overall, the market is still in a state of volatility and wait-and-see. The trend of BTC and ETH shows investors’ cautious sentiment, while the lack of new hotspots in the Altcoin market has led to an overall decline. Although the AHR999 index and the Fear & Greed index provide some long-term investment signals, the market still faces significant uncertainty in the short term.

In terms of market hotspots, although there have been some highlights in the Ton eco and Polifi sector, the overall impact is relatively limited. Investors should continue to focus on upcoming market events and data changes, operate cautiously, and allocate assets reasonably.

In the current market environment, it is recommended that investors remain patient, monitor long-term investment opportunities, and closely monitor market hotspots and policy changes in order to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.